The Southern Male Democrat

One of the great political divides in our country has always been between urban voters and rural voters. In a broad sense, people who live closer together in a city are more likely to think of government as a source of solutions to their problems. People who live in rural areas are more independent and see government as an intrusion.

Though the lines between urban and rural America get blurred with each passing year, these voting patterns still exist. Think about it - when was the last time that New York City, Los Angeles or Chicago voted Republican for President? Conversely, President Clinton only carried his native Arkansas and Vice-President Gore’s native Tennessee in the South. Besides those two, no Southern state has voted Democratic for President since 1976 with President Carter.

But the times are-a-changin’! Consider this study by North Carolina based Public Policy Polling. It shows that people who move in from out of state are bringing their Democratic voting preferences with them. Among native North Carolinians, McCain leads Obama by 48% to 40%. But among non-natives, Obama leads McCain by 46%-41%. As everyone knows, more and more people from the Northeast corridor are moving in to North Carolina every day with the highest interest paid on CD deposits.

We started to see this trend in Virginia in 2006 with the election of Jim Webb to the US Senate. Granted, Webb was helped tremendously by the verbal gaffes of George Allen, but the fact that Webb was even in a position to win was a direct result of the growth of the Washington, DC suburbs, which also grow more and more Democratic every year. Thanks to this trend, former Virginia Governor Mark Warner is a  virtual shoe-in for election to the US Senate this year, holding a lead of more than 20 percentage points in the polls.

Now the Democratic tide from the North is reaching down into North Carolina. We actually started to see this in 2006 as well. Consider first-term NC Representative Ty Harrell, whose district in Western Wake County was solidly Republican in terms of registration for years. But between 2003 and 2006, enough new voters moved in to the district to classify it as a “swing” district, with no one party having a clear advantage. Harrell ran on a bipartisan message of effectiveness and won the seat.

This year, the tide has the Democratic presidential nominee Obama in a statistical tie with his Republican counterpart McCain.  Every poll I’ve seen has the NC race within the statistical margin of error.

Though I will continue to bang my head against the wall and tell people to vote solely based on the issues, I know that’s not going to happen. While I am thankful that I managed to somehow escape the affliction, native white Southerners will continue to vote Republican because those traditions and political values were handed to them (just as voters in Connecticut do the same thing for the Democrats…).

But if I were a die-hard NC Republican, I would be wringing my hands looking at the long term view. John McCain may well win the Presidency and Liddy Dole may hold on to the Senate seat (www sces org) - but those holds are less and less firm every election cycle. New Democratic voter registration is swamping new Republican voter registration both in North Carolina and across the country.

As technology gives people the chance to live and work farther and farther from where they were born, these trends will only continue. As the population grows and areas that were once rural become more and more urban, these trends will only continue.

Year by year, city by city and block by block, the city mice are going to win out. In the words of the immortal Ric Flair - “Whether you like it, or you don’t like it, learn to love it, because it’s the best thing going today!” WHOO! 

(Post script - OK, I admit the Flair quote doesn’t totally work there, but I was just dying to use it!)